Iran Will Know How to Build Bomb in 6 Months - Israel

[onthebottom]

By Andrew Cawthorne and Amir Paivar

LONDON/TEHRAN (Reuters) - Israel said on Wednesday Tehran was just six months away from being able to build an atomic bomb, as Iranian state television rattled markets by reporting an explosion near Iran's only nuclear power plant.

OK OK OK

Lets imagine for a moment that this prediction is true (I can think of many reasons it may not be true but lets go with it for a minute) what should the world do:

OTB

[yychobbyist]

I'm pretty convinced from what I've read about Iranian scenarios that there is nothing militarily that the U.S. or Israel can about their nuclear capabilities without massively destabilizing the region, and indeed the world. This is maybe the one country in the world where the Americans are truly hooped when it comes to military options. As a result, they better start talking to these Iranians - and soon.

[onthebottom]

I'm pretty convinced from what I've read about Iranian scenarios that there is nothing militarily that the U.S. or Israel can about their nuclear capabilities without massively destabilizing the region, and indeed the world. This is maybe the one country in the world where the Americans are truly hooped when it comes to military options. As a result, they better start talking to these Iranians - and soon.

Can't the EU do the talking, why is it necessary for the US to be involved? The military option is not the only option.

OTB

[yychobbyist]

You're right. I'm still sick and am therefore not as thorough as I'd like to be today. Anyway, some entity will have to get seriously involved here as it's in the entire world's interest not to go into Iran militarily - I just can't imagine one country chomping at the bit to get involved in that coalition.

The military option isnt the only one but it's the one that seems to get discussed most frequently given what the U.S. has done in Iraq, what the Israelis did at Osiraq and given the current U.S. military presence in Iraq. I would imagine that there are currently quiet diplomatic efforts being made with respect to Iranian nukes and there are a host of economic incentives that could be used here as well - if, that is, the Iranians are willing to cooperate and that is a huge issue.

[stang]

6 months away huh?

No problem. Gotta feeling there'll be some leave cancelled for the IAF in 5 months, 29 days.

[Peeping Tom]

The EU can do the talking, talk is something they excel at. However, results are required, not talk. The non military option is full sanctions, something not likely given the current makeup of the UN. By sanctions, I don't mean something pathetic involving oil for bribes programs and wealthy French oligarchs - all the way or no way.

Fat chance to the above. OTOH Israel has stated that Iran having nuclear weapons will not be tolerated. So, will this much vaunted "international community" finally implement a diplomatic solution with teeth, or will Israel be forced to invoke its fundamental right of self preservation? Or, does the US tighten up the chains on Israel, until something really bad happens? Heck, maybe that's what the world needs to see - execution of MAD on a regional scale.




Can't the EU do the talking, why is it necessary for the US to be involved? The military option is not the only option.

OTB

[stang]

Has anyone talked about the real cause of the problem for America. They won't be able to stop everyone from aquiring better weapons forever.
If a kid keeps throwing rocks at your windows, you don't go out there and get rid of all the rocks. Perhaps you find out why he is doing it?

[happygrump]

A few potential options:

First of all, Iran likely wants a weapon as a deterrent from an attack. So, in exchange for not building a bomb, the US and other Western forces could pledge to not invade, ever. It's been done before, with Cuba;
Let'em build it. Then buy it from them. Really;
Instead of sanctions, give the Iranian theocracy full access to the international community through the UN and other similar organizations. Improve trade, cultural relations, help raise their standard of living, etc. Will further isolating them improve the situation? I think not;
Face the fact that no matter what any other country does, states are going to develop nuclear weapons. We cannot un-learn how to build them. So, just like both the US and the USSR and their respective allies survived through decades of cold war, it's possible that this may be the new cold war. The only difference is that the weapons are spread all over the planet, instead of primarily in half-a-dozen nations;
Bomb the bejeezuz out of them now, which will eliminate the immediate threat but put other country's nuclear programs into overdrive as a deterrent to a Western strike.

Alas, I voted, "Fark I don't know" on the poll.

[Peeping Tom]

Nuclear weapons cannot serve as a deterrent from Western attack. Iran is not, nor will ever be on equal footing with the West. A better strategy for them is to consider what it is that they do that angers the West.


A few potential options:

First of all, Iran likely wants a weapon as a deterrent from an attack. So, in exchange for not building a bomb, the US and other Western forces could pledge to not invade, ever. It's been done before, with Cuba;

Uhmm, not really.


Let'em build it. Then buy it from them. Really;

They have full access to the international forums, indeed much more than is warranted. There are no trading issues; they are free to import and export whatever commodities and manufactured goods they desire. The domestic standard of living is as high as the mullahs permit - that is something outside of the Western program. Cultural relations are their game as well and if they wish to avoid isolation they should stop isolating themselves.


Instead of sanctions, give the Iranian theocracy full access to the international community through the UN and other similar organizations. Improve trade, cultural relations, help raise their standard of living, etc. Will further isolating them improve the situation? I think not;

Fact is that the Cold War of superpowers is over. It is true that both sides posess tremendous destructive capability, yet both sides understood the implications of using it. Both sides wished to eventually emerge on top, a reality which dictated against use of nuclear weapons save for the scenario of mutually assured destruction. It is not a new cold war due to the assymetrical relation of powers - one strike here or there in exchange for unilaterally guaranteed extinction. That is what is worrisome: Stalin knew the restraints, that a global empire of evil would be unnattainable if most of the world, and all of his, was burnt to ash. This in stark contrast to some nut who imagines finding 79 virgins in heaven on the day of reckoning.


Face the fact that no matter what any other country does, states are going to develop nuclear weapons. We cannot un-learn how to build them. So, just like both the US and the USSR and their respective allies survived through decades of cold war, it's possible that this may be the new cold war. The only difference is that the weapons are spread all over the planet, instead of primarily in half-a-dozen nations;

Bomb the bejeesus out of them now, in a manner which shows other aspiring tyrants just how fast a piddling state can be wiped off the face of this earth. A very appealing idea, unfortunately one that isn't workable currently. It seems that option will require a nuclear provocation, something which the international community wants to prevent but in characteristic manner is unable to achieve. The day some mullah or dear leader delivers this provocation will be a day of judgement, make no bones about that.


Bomb the bejeezuz out of them now, which will eliminate the immediate threat but put other country's nuclear programs into overdrive as a deterrent to a Western strike.

I voted to throw them in the pit with Israel. If Iran can't get with the program, better to let them sort it out with their peers.


Alas, I voted, "Fark I don't know" on the poll.

[Goober Mcfly]

You know, I'm starting to think we (read- The US) should just nuke the middle east and be done with it.

[seth gecko]

It seems that the 6month estimate given here should have been qualified as Jupiter years, not Earth years

[noalias]

the jews have it so why cant iran have it

[seth gecko]

Thanks for your input, but I pulled up this old thread only as an example to one of our stupider members who doesn't know that threads in this forum are in fact archived and retrievable. There's already a much a more current thread on this exact topic. This thread was retrieved as a joke (hence the sorry attempt at being funny with the "Jupiter years" comment). I guess I should have added a few "smileys" for emphasis.
But thanks for your input nonetheless.

[NorthPole]

Thanks for your input, but I pulled up this old thread only as an example to one of our stupider members who doesn't know that threads in this forum are in fact archived and retrievable. There's already a much a more current thread on this exact topic. This thread was retrieved as a joke (hence the sorry attempt at being funny with the "Jupiter years" comment). I guess I should have added a few "smileys" for emphasis.
But thanks for your input nonetheless.


Do you really think they don't already have it?

[flubadub]

That is pretty funny.
Onethebottom, still shouting the same warnings as 6 years ago?

[onthebottom]

That is pretty funny.
Onethebottom, still shouting the same warnings as 6 years ago?

You'll notice I called into doubt.

OTB

[asterwald]

Big deal. Pakistan has it, Israel has it, the US has it. Persia has not invaded any nation for over a millenia. In fact They have been invaded by Europeans, Arabs, Turks, and Mongols.

Its time this historical nation does what it must for its security.

[WoodPeckr]

You'll notice I called into doubt.

OTB

Yeah right bottie.
Admit it, you were just stirring up the 'kosher pot' here.....:p

[wigglee]

sanctions don't work, they just make the poor suffer........war won't work, unless you kill every muslim on earth it will just make the rest angrier. Talk , negotiate, try and come to a peaceful solution between Iran, the Palistinians, Ossama , the Taliban and Al Qaida. Ask them if there is a co-existence scenario that they can envision and negotiate ( but be willing to compromise and admit past mistakes, like not moving Israel to Long Island).........if that fails, blow them all up

[nottyboi]

What has Israel done to try and reduce hatred against it? If Israel wants true peace, they need to forge a peace with the Palis. They have not done enough to succeed. So IMHO they deserve to live with a nuclear armed Iran. I don't believe Iran will EVER use nuclear weapons unless it's existence is really under threat.

[bishop123]

the jews have it so why cant iran have it

Because Israel would never fire nukes at Iran unprovoked, Iran would fire at Israel just because they are Jewish.

[danmand]

Because Israel would never fire nukes at Iran unprovoked, Iran would fire at Israel just because they are Jewish.

Oh, if that is the case, ...

[asterwald]

Because Israel would never fire nukes at Iran unprovoked, Iran would fire at Israel just because they are Jewish.

There are Jews living in Iran. They have been there since Anchient Persian times.

[nottyboi]

Nuclear weapons cannot serve as a deterrent from Western attack. Iran is not, nor will ever be on equal footing with the West. A better strategy for them is to consider what it is that they do that angers the West.



Uhmm, not really.



They have full access to the international forums, indeed much more than is warranted. There are no trading issues; they are free to import and export whatever commodities and manufactured goods they desire. The domestic standard of living is as high as the mullahs permit - that is something outside of the Western program. Cultural relations are their game as well and if they wish to avoid isolation they should stop isolating themselves.



Fact is that the Cold War of superpowers is over. It is true that both sides posess tremendous destructive capability, yet both sides understood the implications of using it. Both sides wished to eventually emerge on top, a reality which dictated against use of nuclear weapons save for the scenario of mutually assured destruction. It is not a new cold war due to the assymetrical relation of powers - one strike here or there in exchange for unilaterally guaranteed extinction. That is what is worrisome: Stalin knew the restraints, that a global empire of evil would be unnattainable if most of the world, and all of his, was burnt to ash. This in stark contrast to some nut who imagines finding 79 virgins in heaven on the day of reckoning.



Bomb the bejeesus out of them now, in a manner which shows other aspiring tyrants just how fast a piddling state can be wiped off the face of this earth. A very appealing idea, unfortunately one that isn't workable currently. It seems that option will require a nuclear provocation, something which the international community wants to prevent but in characteristic manner is unable to achieve. The day some mullah or dear leader delivers this provocation will be a day of judgement, make no bones about that.



I voted to throw them in the pit with Israel. If Iran can't get with the program, better to let them sort it out with their peers.

Where did you learn all their nonsense? Firstly Iran wants to secure it's sovereignity, Nuclear weapons are the cheapest way to do that. It can lauch sattelites into space, which means it can build missiles that have the range to hit any spot on the planet. Sure the US will always be able to wipe out Iran, but would they be willing to lose 5 major cities?


As for the ability to buy anything they want, that is utter nonsense. Iran is subject to sanctions now, they are still flying 30 year old airplanes as a result of these sanctinons.

If Israel attack Iran and Iran rains missile down on Israel, where will that lead us. Even Syria has the ability to fire about 200+ ballastic missiles on Israel. They are not nuclear, but 200,000 lbs of explosives can do quite a bit of damage...let alone chemical or biological weapons.

[basketcase]

Big deal. Pakistan has it, Israel has it, the US has it. Persia has not invaded any nation for over a millenia. In fact They have been invaded by Europeans, Arabs, Turks, and Mongols.

Its time this historical nation does what it must for its security.

You're right. Iran needs nukes to defend against the next Mongol invasion. Or they could just go along with the treaty the signed.

[basketcase]

What has Israel done to try and reduce hatred against it? If Israel wants true peace, ...

Except for a significant percent of their enemies, Israel simply existing (in any form) is enough to create hate - but of course we know your preferred solution is the Jews get kicked out of the ME.

[basketcase]

... Iran would fire at Israel just because they are Jewish.

Not likely. More likely is they give a little bomb to Hamas or someone even more motivated by hate.


(and it's not because they're Jewish but rather they are Jews who control 'Muslim land')

[danmand]

The ones who argue for a war with Iran, must be descendents of the people that advised Hitler to start a war against Russia.

[Twister]

Where did you learn all their nonsense? Firstly Iran wants to secure it's sovereignity, Nuclear weapons are the cheapest way to do that. It can lauch sattelites into space, which means it can build missiles that have the range to hit any spot on the planet. Sure the US will always be able to wipe out Iran, but would they be willing to lose 5 major cities?


As for the ability to buy anything they want, that is utter nonsense. Iran is subject to sanctions now, they are still flying 30 year old airplanes as a result of these sanctinons.

If Israel attack Iran and Iran rains missile down on Israel, where will that lead us. Even Syria has the ability to fire about 200+ ballastic missiles on Israel. They are not nuclear, but 200,000 lbs of explosives can do quite a bit of damage...let alone chemical or biological weapons.

Buddy , your replying to a 6 year old post ..........LOL